Bilateral economic and trade between China and the Philippines is expected to strengthen
RCEP welcomed the last participant among the initial contracting parties, the Philippines, to complete the puzzle covering a larger market of 15 countries. The Philippines is one of the fastest industrialized countries in Asia and has a strong desire to develop its manufacturing industry. In his State of the Union address after taking office, President Marcos Jr. said that he would take promoting economic recovery as the primary goal of the government, and promised to continue and the plananstruction plan of former President Duterte's "major construction and special construction", Update old railways, improve roads and modernize airports and seaports.
As a maritime neighboring country, China and the Philippines have a long history of trade exchanges, frequent personnel exchanges, and have formed relatively stable trade relations. The Philippines is a country that imports more than it exports in trade. According to United Nations Comtrade data, in 2022, the Philippines exported 78.93 billion US dollars, of which 10.97 billion US dollars were exported to China, accounting for 13.9%; imports amounted to 145.88 billion US dollars, of which 29.80 billion US dollars were imported from China, accounting for 20.4%. According to the Philippine National Statistics Report, the annual economic growth rate in 2022 was 7.6%, with an average GDP of $3600 for a population of 110 million. However, due to the slowdown in external demand, the Philippines'economicgrowth rate slowed slightly again to 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Maintaining the vitality of foreign trade is crucial for the Philippines in order to achieve sustainable economic growth.
In 2023, bilateral trade between China and the Philippines continued to maintain stability, and the complementary advantages of the two countries in the economic and trade fields provided extensive demand support for each other. According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to April this year, China's imports from the Philippines were 1.38 billion US dollars, 1.34 billion US dollars, 1.72 billion US dollars, and 1.64 billion US dollars, respectively; The export value to the Philippines is 5.23 billion US dollars, 3.94 billion US dollars, 6.11 billion US dollars, and 5.09 billion US dollars, respectively. Based on this calculation, China's trade surplus with the Philippines over the past four months was 3.85 billion US dollars, 2.6 billion US dollars, 4.39 billion US dollars, and 3.45 billion US dollars, respectively.
The bilateral trade relationship between China and the Philippines has distinct characteristics. Taking January of this year as an example, the top three categories of goods imported by China from the Philippines are electronic machinery (HS85), mineral sand (HS26), and machinery (HS84), with import volume and proportion of $800 million (57.7%), $130 million (9.3%), and $120 million (9.0%), respectively. This is also the only three categories of goods that China imported from the Philippines exceeding $100 million that month. The above three categories together accounted for more than three-quarters (76.0%) of China's imports from the Philippines that month.
However, China's exports to the Economy of the Philippines in the current month were relatively scattered, which shows that China's exports have widely responded to and met the needs of the Philippines ' economic and social development. There are 11 categories of goods with exports exceeding 100 million US dollars, accounting for 70% (70.9%) of China's exports to the Philippines. Even so, the 11th ranked toy imports accounted for only 2.2% of the total. The top three Chinese exports to the Philippines are steel (HS72), electronic machinery (HS85), and machinery (HS84). The export value and proportion of these three types of goods are 690 million US dollars (13.3%), 670 million US dollars (12.8%), and 430 million US dollars (8.2%), respectively.
The Chinese market has a huge scale and has a strong and widespread appeal to Filipino exporters. The Philippines has a keen interest in expanding its exports to China. In the fifth China International Import Expo in 2022, not only will the booth area increased by 240 square meters, but also the number of exhibitors will increase by 19. The Philippines has become the largest source of banana and pineapple imports for China, with coconut, avocado, frozen fruits, and fresh durian entering the Chinese market one after another, providing Chinese consumers with more diverse choices and injecting strong demand into the development of Philippine agriculture.
The cooperation framework established by RCEP not only reduces tariff trade barriers in goods trade, creates institutional conditions for reducing non-tariff barriers through collaborative docking, but also brings benefits to the development of service trade and investment. The Philippines has unique advantages in areas such as service outsourcing, and Chinese companies'investmentsin the Philippines are also widely involved in areas such as service outsourcing, logistics, agriculture, steel, and communication. With the entry into force of the agreement, there are more development opportunities for trade and investment in areas such as motorcycles with high market demand. Enterprises can engage in more effective and sufficient industrial and supply chain configuration among RCEP members, including the Philippines, seeking to reduce operating costs and improve efficiency with the support of cumulative rules of origin. The growth of trade and investment helps to provide better support for economic development, reduce the constraints of resource factors on development, and create more social welfare and employment opportunities.
In addition to the improvement of market expectations, the development of trade and investment also has more mutual influence with changes in the environment. The optimization of the software environment and the improvement of hardware conditions complement and support each other. With the steady development of bilateral trade and investment between China and the Philippines, the supporting logistics infrastructure is expected to be further improved. The plan for upgrading the existing infrastructure highlighted by the Philippines can strengthen coordination and docking, providing more effective guarantees to reduce trade investment costs, enhance supply chain resilience, and promote the realization of the economic and social development goals of both sides.
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